BRIDGES Insights
What the Citizenship Programme Means for Vanuatu's Budget
Updated: August 2026·13 min read·Expert reviewed
Terms and costs verified: August 2026
Contents
"Won't the programme be closed?" — every other meeting starts with this question. I stopped answering with words and started showing the budget figures. Usually the question then answers itself.
The question "won't the programme be closed" comes up at every second meeting, and answering it with reasoning is pointless. The answer lies in the budget figures: the more the programme means to the treasury, the less chance the state will give it up.
We compared revenue from the citizenship programmes with the parameters of Vanuatu's budget and calculated what share of public money the sale of passports provides. The figure turned out to be such that the question of closure answers itself.
In short: the scale for the country
- Programme revenue — VT 13.8 billion in 2024, about USD 115 million.
- The country's population — about 300,000 people.
- That works out at roughly USD 380 per resident a year.
- Running the Citizenship Commission — about VT 82 million in the 2026 budget.
- In other words, administering the programme costs less than one per cent of what it brings in.
- The programme is established in law, and decisions on it are taken by parliament.
We will assess the programme's durability for your purpose
We will tell you which risks are real for your planning horizon and which have been debated for years without consequence.
How much the programme brings in
The Reserve Bank of Vanuatu's data by year.
State revenue from the citizenship-by-investment programmes according to the Reserve Bank of Vanuatu. The 2026 figure covers the first half and is shown with a dashed outline: the year is not over.
The Reserve Bank notes separately that around 80 per cent of these receipts come from the DSP and VCP investment programmes, with the rest from other fees. Even with that adjustment, the sum is comparable to the country's largest sources of own revenue.
What this means at the scale of the state
Absolute figures say little until they are set against the size of the economy. Comparisons that help show the scale:
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Programme revenue, 2024 | VT 13.8 bn (~USD 115 m) |
| Population of Vanuatu | about 300,000 |
| Per resident | roughly USD 380 a year |
| Citizenship Commission budget, 2026 | about VT 82 m |
| Share of administrative costs | less than 1% of programme revenue |
For comparison, a country with a similar economy draws its main revenue from agriculture, tourism and an offshore financial sector. The citizenship programme has taken its place alongside these sectors, while requiring no infrastructure or jobs and no dependence on weather or the tourist season.
That last point matters especially for a country regularly hit by cyclones. Vanuatu's programme, incidentally, grew out of the recovery from Cyclone Pam in 2015: an economic rehabilitation scheme was launched then, and today's programmes developed from it.
Where the programme came from
Understanding the programme's origins explains why it is so firmly embedded in the public finances.
In 2013 Vanuatu permitted dual citizenship. In 2014 the first scheme appeared — the Capital Investment Immigration Plan, aimed at Chinese citizens. In March 2015 Cyclone Pam, one of the most destructive in the history of the South Pacific, struck the country, and the government launched an economic rehabilitation programme, now open to applicants from any country.
In other words, the programme grew not out of a wish to trade in passports but out of the task of rebuilding the country after a disaster. That also explains the attitude within Vanuatu: for a state of around three hundred thousand people with regular cyclones, it is a mechanism of financial resilience.
After that, schemes merged and succeeded one another: VERP, VCP, DSP and the property option. We keep the history of the changes in the article on Vanuatu's citizenship programmes — the DSP and others.
How it looks against its neighbours
Vanuatu is not unique in relying on a citizenship programme, but the degree of dependence differs.
| State | Population | Role of the programme in the economy |
|---|---|---|
| Vanuatu | about 300,000 | one of the main sources of the budget |
| Saint Kitts and Nevis | about 50,000 | historically a key source of revenue |
| Dominica | about 70,000 | a significant share of the budget |
| Nauru | about 12,000 | a substantial share of a small budget |
| Grenada | about 125,000 | a noticeable but not decisive share |
The general pattern is simple: the smaller the country, the more the programme matters to it and the less likely it is to give up that revenue. States of this size have no alternative sources on a comparable scale. A substantive comparison of the programmes is in Vanuatu or the Caribbean.
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Legal durability
The economics are half the answer. The other half is how the programme is established in law.
Citizenship by investment in Vanuatu operates not on a departmental decision but on the basis of law. Decisions are taken by the Citizenship Commission, a state body, and changes to the conditions go through parliament. The Commission's costs are set out as a separate line in the annual budget appropriation — the programme is built into the state's financial system rather than existing beside it.
The practical meaning: to close the programme would take a decision by the parliament of a country for whose budget it is one of the main sources. We covered the legal structure in the article on Vanuatu's official citizenship programme, and recognition of the status in is Vanuatu citizenship by investment legal.
When I am asked about the programme closing, I show two numbers: USD 115 million of revenue and VT 82 million of spending on the body that administers it. No state gives up a source of that scale under external pressure when the pressure concerns third countries' visa regimes rather than the programme itself. The real risk here is a different one, and the opposite: the programme will keep becoming more expensive and stricter. Over ten years the cost of entry has risen by more than half and has never once fallen. To those waiting for better conditions I usually say that waiting under this programme has never paid off historically.
Sergey Evdokimov
What outside observers say
Criticism of the programme is regular, and it is worth reading without emotion. The European Commission's main objections were short processing times, a low refusal rate and no requirement of physical presence in the country.
What Vanuatu has corrected: the financial intelligence check has become a full one and takes place before the case reaches the Commission, the refusal rate has risen from a fraction of a per cent to almost two per cent, and since November 2025 a biometric passport has been issued with biometrics taken from every applicant.
What has not changed and is unlikely to: there is no requirement to live in the country, and that is a deliberate feature of the programme, not an oversight. It is what makes the process remote.
A key point often lost in retellings: the EU's decisions concern the visa regime for citizens of Vanuatu, not the legality of the programme itself or the validity of passports issued. The analysis is in is Vanuatu citizenship by investment legal.
What would happen to the budget if the programme stopped
A useful thought experiment that shows the degree of dependence better than any percentage.
Programme revenue in 2024 was about USD 115 million for a population of around three hundred thousand. That is roughly USD 380 per resident a year. For comparison, Vanuatu's GDP per head is measured in a few thousand dollars, so the programme provides a sum comparable to a noticeable share of everything the economy produces per person.
There is no substitute for this revenue. Tourism depends on the season and air links, agriculture on the weather, and the offshore financial sector is itself under external pressure. Stopping the programme would mean not a spending cut but a budget crisis.
That is why Vanuatu responds to criticism by tightening its checks rather than winding the programme down: keeping it by making it stricter is cheaper than losing it altogether. The logic is visible in the refusal figures — the analysis is in refusals of Vanuatu citizenship.
Which risks are real
Let us separate what is discussed into the real and the imagined.
| Risk | How real | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Closure of the programme | low: it is a pillar of the budget | nothing, but do not put things off indefinitely |
| A rising cost of entry | high: it happens regularly | apply sooner rather than later |
| Tougher checks | high: already happening | prepare the source of funds in advance |
| Changes to third countries' visa regimes | medium: outside Vanuatu's control | do not build the plan on visa-free travel |
| Revocation of passports already issued | low: no mass precedents | comply with the requirements |
Note that the two most likely scenarios work against those who wait. That is why the question "won't it be closed" matters less in practice than the question "what will it cost a year from now".
The year in figures →Risks of the Vanuatu passport →
What this revenue compares with inside the country
To make VT 13.8 billion less abstract, it helps to set it beside the state's other sources of revenue.
Vanuatu's main own revenue comes from consumption taxes and import duties, tourism and the offshore financial sector. None of them provides such a concentrated and predictable sum: tourism depends on the season and air links, duties on trade turnover, and the financial sector is itself under external pressure.
The citizenship programme, meanwhile, requires no infrastructure, no jobs and no capital investment by the state. The cost side is the upkeep of the Commission, about VT 82 million in the 2026 budget. The ratio of revenue to cost here is one no other state function can match.
The context is also worth remembering: the programme grew out of the recovery from Cyclone Pam in 2015. For a country that regularly loses infrastructure to natural disasters, it is also a mechanism for quick access to money without loans or foreign aid.
Frequently asked
Questions people ask before deciding
01How much does the citizenship programme bring Vanuatu's budget?
According to the Reserve Bank of Vanuatu, revenue was VT 13.8 billion in 2024, about USD 115 million, and around VT 11.2 billion in 2025. Around 80 per cent of these receipts come from the DSP and VCP investment programmes.
02How much is that for the country?
Vanuatu has a population of about 300,000, so it works out at roughly USD 380 per resident a year. The programme has taken its place alongside agriculture, tourism and the offshore financial sector as a source of state revenue.
03Could the programme be closed?
There are no economic grounds for it. Administering the programme costs the budget about VT 82 million against revenue of more than USD 100 million. External pressure concerns third countries' visa regimes, not Vanuatu's right to grant citizenship.
04On what basis does the programme operate?
On the basis of law. Decisions are taken by the Citizenship Commission, a state body whose costs appear as a separate line in the budget appropriation. Changes to the conditions go through the country's parliament.
05Which risks under the programme are genuinely real?
A rising cost of entry and tougher checks. Both are already happening: over ten years the minimum entry has risen by more than half and has never fallen, and the refusal rate has risen from a fraction of a per cent to almost two per cent.
06Could passports already issued be revoked?
There are no mass precedents. Revocation is possible in individual cases where false information in the application comes to light — a standard rule for any citizenship obtained by application.
About the author
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