The Outlook for Vanuatu's Programme to 2028

Forecasting in investment migration is a risky business: too many decisions are taken politically and without warning. So we build this forecast not on expectations but on what is already happening in the data, and we separate what can be calculated from what can only be assumed.

Below are the four lines along which Vanuatu's programme will move until 2028, with an indication of how reliable each one is. Plus the practical conclusion: what it changes for someone deciding now.

In short: four lines

• Volume. Flow will remain in a corridor of 1,500-2,500 approvals a year.
• Price. The cost of entry will keep rising; there will be no reduction.
• Strictness. The refusal rate will rise to three to four per cent.
• The passport's role. It will become firmly established as the entry to European residence programmes.

Volume: no sharp movements

Over the past six years annual flow has moved within a narrow corridor, and external shocks — neither the pandemic nor the end of visa-free travel to the European Union — have broken it.

We expect neither a collapse nor explosive growth. The programme operates in a mode where demand is limited not by market interest but by the capacity of the checks. Vanuatu is in no hurry to expand it, and that is a deliberate position: growth in volume now would cost reputation.

Price: only upwards

The most reliable line of the forecast, because it is confirmed by ten years of history.

It is not only the contribution that is rising but also the associated fees: due diligence, documents, biometrics. The total budget of a case is growing faster than the contribution rate, and that should be built into the calculation. Current amounts are set out in the article on how much Vanuatu citizenship costs.

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Strictness: the rise will continue

The refusal rate rose from 0.37 per cent in 2021 to almost two per cent in 2023. We expect three to four per cent by 2028, on the following basis.

• Biometrics have operated since November 2025. That makes checks against international databases complete rather than selective.
• Source-of-funds requirements continue to tighten across the investment citizenship market as a whole, and Vanuatu is following the trend.
• The reviewers have built up experience and recognise schemes that went through five years ago.

It is important to understand that what is growing is not arbitrariness but the demands placed on documents. A refusal on the merits remains rare — a detailed analysis is in refusals of Vanuatu citizenship.

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The passport's role: entry to Europe through residence

This is the only line where we expect a qualitative change rather than a quantitative one.

After the end of visa-free travel to the European Union, Vanuatu ceased to be a passport for travelling around Europe but acquired another function that matters more to a wealthy client: it works as a basis for entry to European residence programmes. Above all the Greek one through property, and also the Hungarian grounds.

We expect that by 2028 this combination will become the main way the passport is used: a fast passport in two to three months, then European residence on that basis. The structure is set out in the section on residence programmes, and what happened to demand after the EU decision in Vanuatu after the end of EU visa-free travel.

What could turn out differently

An honest forecast must include the scenarios in which it does not come true. Three of them deserve attention.

A sharp tightening under external pressure. Medium probability. If the requirements of international organisations rise abruptly, Vanuatu could introduce additional conditions — for example, a mandatory visit to the country. For an applicant that would mean higher costs, but not the loss of the option.

Restrictions by applicants' citizenship. Low probability, but not zero. Some programmes around the world have restricted citizens of particular countries. For Vanuatu such a step would run against its own economic interests, since the main demand comes precisely from those countries.

A pause for technical restructuring. Low probability. It has happened before during transitions between schemes: acceptance of applications was suspended for a few weeks. It is not a risk of losing money, but a risk of timelines shifting.

None of the scenarios leads to passports already issued losing their force. That is fundamental: citizenship obtained is an accomplished fact, and changes concern the conditions of entry for new applicants.

How to read news about the programme

Headlines about "golden passports being closed" appear regularly, and almost always something else lies behind them. A simple way to decode them:

The practical rule: look at who took the decision and what exactly it changes. An EU Council decision on visas changes neither the legality of the programme nor the validity of the passport. A decision by Vanuatu's parliament on the programme's conditions changes them for new applicants and has no retroactive effect.

Vanuatu cost calculator →

Three indicators I watch

To see changes before the market does, rather than guessing, it is enough to watch three open indicators.

First: the Reserve Bank's quarterly reviews. Programme revenue is published quarterly. A sustained fall over two or three consecutive quarters would mean something had changed in demand or in the process, and it would be visible long before any announcements.

Second: the budget appropriation. Spending on the Citizenship Commission appears as a separate line. A sharp increase in staffing usually signals preparation for tougher checks, and a cut the reverse.

Third: the Commission's fee page. Changes to fees appear there before they appear in retellings. We check it regularly, because a client's estimate must be built on the current tariff, not last year's.

All three sources are open, and links to them are at the end of this article. If you decide to follow them yourself, watch these rather than market publications, where figures appear months late and often second-hand.

What this changes for a decision today

Four practical conclusions from the forecast.

• The cost of waiting is measurable. On the historical trend, a year of waiting costs roughly 5-10 per cent of a case's budget.
• Preparation will take longer than the review. Already, assembling a correct source-of-funds pack is sometimes harder than waiting for the decision, and the imbalance will grow.
• It pays to include the family at once. Every price increase hits those who add relatives later in a separate application.
• The European track is worth planning in advance. If the ultimate goal is Europe, the passport is the first step, and the sooner it is taken, the sooner the main process starts.

A decision checklist

If you are weighing whether to go now or wait, work through six points.

• Define the goal: a back-up document, speed, tax status, entry to European residence. Whether the programme suits you at all depends on it.
• Check the family composition: whom you include at once and whom you had planned to add later. Later is always more expensive.
• Assess the source of funds: can the chain be evidenced with documents today?
• Calculate the cost of a year's wait: on the historical trend, 5-10 per cent of the case budget.
• Check your travel expectations against the current list of destinations, not against promises from three years ago.
• If the ultimate goal is Europe, plan the combination from the start: the passport, then a residence programme.

The first three points are settled by a review before filing, the last three by a calculation. Both steps are taken before you make a single payment.

The year in figures →How to obtain citizenship →

What the forecast definitely does not include

Let me separate what we expect from what is regularly promised on the market.

• There will be no return of EU visa-free travel. The decision was taken at the level of the Council of the Union and relates to the very structure of the programmes, not to one-off circumstances.
• There will be no price reduction. Over ten years the cost of entry has never once fallen. Waiting for promotions and discounts has never been justified historically.
• There will be no acceleration below two months. Two to three months is already the limit given the current checks and the commission's meeting cycle.
• There will be no abolition of the source-of-funds check. The requirement is external and market-wide; the programme is not autonomous here.

If you are promised anything from this list, it is not a forecast but a way of closing a sale. Any such promise can be checked against the open sources linked below.