Spain is losing foreign buyers: what it means for buying and moving in 2027

In short

• Foreigners' share of Spanish home purchases has fallen for three years running: 21.3% of all purchases in the first half of 2023, 18.3% in the first half of 2026.
• Non-residents, meaning buyers who do not live in Spain, pulled back the most: down 18.0% to 22,940 deals, the lowest since 2021. Foreigners who live in the country cut their purchases by 9.7%.
• Prices are not falling. Non-residents pay on average EUR 3,493 per square metre, 11.8% more than a year ago. Across the whole market the price per square metre rose 12.8% in August while the number of sales fell 9.8%.
• The property golden visa has been closed since 3 April 2025 and rents have been capped since 8 October 2026. Both decisions work against the non-resident buyer and the investor.
• My main scenario for 2027 is a plateau: foreign demand holds at a lower level and prices rise more slowly but do not fall. Decide on a purchase by your own goal, not by headlines about a falling market.

What we know today

Spanish notaries see every home sale, which makes their statistics the fastest official snapshot of the market. The first-half 2026 data came out on 15 October; our news story on foreign home purchases covers the figures in detail. The key numbers are in the table.

Three points stand out. First, this is not a one-off. The foreign share has been falling since 2023, and the notaries' chart shows foreign purchase volumes shrinking since the second half of 2025. Second, it is mainly non-residents who are leaving: people buying a second home by the sea, a base for a future move or a property to let. Third, the number of deals is falling while prices are rising. The average price paid by foreigners in the first half was EUR 2,644 per square metre, up 9.4% year on year.

The wider market is moving the same way. On 29 October the notaries reported 34,599 home sales in Spain in August 2026, 9.8% fewer than a year before and the eighth monthly decline in a row. The average price still rose 12.8% to EUR 1,959 per square metre. Mortgage loans for home purchases fell 5.6%. Sales dropped in 16 of the 17 regions; only Cantabria grew.

What this means for you. The Spanish market today means fewer deals at higher prices. It is neither a crash nor a boom but a squeeze in which sellers are still holding their prices and some buyers are stepping aside.

Who is leaving and who is staying

By nationality, Moroccans led the first half with 4,960 purchases or 8.0% of all foreign deals, followed by British buyers with 4,541 or 7.3%. Next came Italians with 6.6%, Romanians with 6.4% and Germans with 6.3%. Buyers from other non-EU countries together accounted for 7,822 deals, or 12.5%. But these figures blend two quite different groups.

Among non-residents the leaders are the Dutch with 12.6%, Germans with 11.8%, British buyers with 10.4% and Poles with 8.1%. This is the classic buyer of a second home on the coast. Among residents the leaders are Moroccans, Italians and Romanians: people who already live and work in Spain and buy a home for themselves. It is this second group that is holding the market up. It shrank less and remains high by the standards of the whole series.

Non-residents are concentrated in a few places. The Valencia region takes 40.3% of their purchases and Andalusia 25.3%, followed by the Canary Islands, Murcia and Catalonia. In Madrid non-residents account for just 1.5% of their deals. So 'foreigners are leaving' means far more on the Valencian and Andalusian coast than in the capital.

By region, foreign purchases fell hardest in Cantabria (down 20.5%), the Canary Islands (down 20.3%) and Madrid (down 19.7%). The Balearic Islands and the Valencia region were down 15.4%, Andalusia 12.7% and Catalonia 9.0%. Only Castilla-La Mancha and Extremadura grew. Meanwhile the prices foreigners paid rose in 15 of the 17 regions: by 23.0% in Cantabria, 22.3% in Asturias, 16.4% in Extremadura, 15.6% in the Valencia region, 15.4% in Madrid and 15.1% in Murcia. They fell only in La Rioja and Navarre.

What this means for you. If you are looking at the coast, where non-residents are numerous, your market is changing faster than the national averages suggest. If you are looking at big cities with local demand, the retreat of foreign buyers barely affects prices there.

Why it matters

The notaries do not give reasons, and I will not present my reading as their conclusion. But several government decisions directly affect the very buyers who are leaving fastest.

The first is the golden visa. Organic Law 1/2025 of 2 January 2025 emptied articles 63 to 67 of Law 14/2013 and thereby abolished the investor visa and residence permit in full, in every form: property, capital, bonds and business investment. New applications have not been accepted since 3 April 2025. Applications filed earlier are decided under the old rules, and existing permits remain valid for their term and are renewed under the rules that applied when they were first granted. Our article on the end of Spain's golden visa and the glossary entry on the Spanish golden visa explain the details. For a non-EU buyer who wanted a flat together with a residence permit, that motive has gone.

The second is rent. Decree 29/2026 has applied since 8 October 2026: if a rent is above the Serpavi reference maximum for the area, it is frozen at any review until 31 December 2027; if below, it may rise by no more than 2%. Temporary lets are limited to 12 months with a documented reason, and a tenant whose contract ends before the end of 2028 can ask for an extension on the same terms. A second decree, 28/2026, on extending contracts after 5 or 7 years, was awaiting approval. We explained the mechanics in our news story on the rent cap. For an investor this means one thing: rental income for the next few years is limited by law.

The third is price. According to the national statistics institute data we checked in our piece on house prices and wages, homes became roughly 80% more expensive over 2015-2025, while the average wage rose by about 28% over 2015-2024. In the second quarter of 2026 prices were up 12.2% year on year. Housing is getting more expensive faster than incomes, and affordability has become the main issue ahead of the snap general election on 29 November 2026.

Put these three factors together and the picture is clear. The non-resident has lost residence through purchase, faces capped rental income and pays a record price. The resident who needs a home to live in keeps buying, because the alternative is renting in the same expensive city.

Three scenarios for 2027

What follows is not a forecast by the notaries but my own scenarios. For each one I list the signs that will show within three to six months which of them is playing out. The first marker is the notaries' data for the second half of 2026; the second is what the new parliament decides after 29 November.

I treat the plateau as the main scenario because resident demand remains strong and Spain still lacks housing. As long as sellers are not forced to sell, they hold their prices. In this scenario the fall in deals stops at a new level, and prices rise more slowly than in 2025-2026.

A further decline is possible if, after the election, measures aimed at housing investors become tougher or permanent: the rent freeze is extended, automatic contract renewal is approved, stressed market zones are widened. Non-residents would then keep leaving, and sellers on the coast who need to sell would have to cut prices.

I see a reversal as the least likely outcome over 2027. There are early signs of local cooling: in August the price per square metre fell 7.0% in Navarre and 4.9% in the Balearic Islands. That is not enough to speak of a turn in the whole market. If falls like these spread to several regions for several months running, the buyers who are now waiting will return.

What this means for you. None of these scenarios promises a cheap Spain in 2027. The difference between them is how much prices rise and how easy it will be to let a property.

If you are buying a home to live in

Your main question is not price but the basis for moving. Buying a home no longer gives you residence, so the status comes first: the non-lucrative residence permit for people living on savings and passive income, or the remote work visa for those working for foreign clients or employers. The first route is set out step by step in our non-lucrative residence guide.

I would advise against buying straight away. The first year is easier in a rental, especially since the law now protects tenants well. How to rent and what the contract should contain is covered in our article on renting in Spain as a foreigner. Within a year you will know the neighbourhood, schools, transport and the real price of flats, not the asking prices.

There is a short explanation of tax residence in our glossary. Our transaction support service can help with the property check and the purchase itself, and our document services cover the paperwork for residence.

If you are buying to let

This is the group the current situation hurts most. Until the end of 2027 rental income is capped by a freeze or a maximum 2% rise at review, temporary lets have been cut to 12 months with a documented reason, and short-term holiday lets have gone through a single national register since 2025. A non-resident landlord pays tax on rent: according to our article on the rent cap, 19% after expenses for EU residents and 24% on gross rent for everyone else.

At the same time purchase prices have risen. Rental yield is therefore squeezed from both sides: a more expensive entry and slower rent growth. If you buy a flat with a tenant, you also buy their contract, together with their right to an extension.

• Model the yield on the current rent and the decree rules, not on the market rate for the area.
• Ask for the tenancy contract, check it against the Serpavi reference system and note the next review date.
• Do not build a plan on short-term lets without checking regional and city rules.
• Compare Spain with markets where rental rules are lighter for investors before choosing a country.

For a country comparison see Greece vs Spain, Portugal vs Spain and Cyprus vs Spain. You can look for properties in other countries in our real estate section.

If you want residence without a golden visa

In Spain itself the answer is not a purchase but one of the routes the golden visa repeal did not touch. Most often that means the non-lucrative permit or the remote work visa. We compared the non-lucrative permit with Portugal's D7 visa in Portugal D7 vs Spain non-lucrative. You can still buy a home later, once you have the status.

If an investment route to residence matters to you, you need to look elsewhere. The Greek golden visa keeps a property option with different thresholds by region. In the Portuguese golden visa real estate has been excluded and funds and other options remain. Cyprus offers permanent residence through investment. For an overview of European programmes this autumn, see our analysis of EU golden visas in autumn 2026.

If you already hold a Spanish golden visa, there is no reason to panic. Under Organic Law 1/2025, existing permits remain valid for their term, and renewals are assessed under the rules in force when the permit was first granted. What matters is avoiding a gap between documents and filing the renewal on time.

If you own property and are thinking of selling

Prices are rising according to the notaries, but there are fewer buyers. For a seller that means a sale may take longer, especially where the market relied on non-residents: the Valencian and Andalusian coast and the Canary and Balearic Islands.

Non-residents still pay the most: EUR 3,493 per square metre against EUR 2,102 for resident foreigners and EUR 1,971 for Spaniards. If your property is aimed at a foreign second-home buyer, you depend on the most nervous group in the market. If it suits a local family, the price will be lower but demand steadier.

• Compare your price with completed sales in your region over recent months, not with your neighbours' listings.
• If a tenant lives in the flat, factor in their right to an extension: a buyer will value the property with that contract attached.
• Prepare documents early: the energy performance certificate, statements of no outstanding debts, cadastral data.
• If the sale is not urgent, wait for the second-half 2026 data and the election result: they will show which scenario is unfolding.

For a large sale or one with a foreign counterparty, checks on the buyer and the source of funds can be handled by our due diligence service.

What I would do now

Put simply, I would not make a decision because of a headline saying 'foreigners are leaving Spain'. For living, Spain remains one of the most comfortable countries in Europe; the way in now goes through a residence status rather than a purchase. For buy-to-let investors the country has become noticeably less attractive than three years ago, and it is worth saying so plainly. For sellers the moment is still good on price, but not on speed.

The next markers are known. The election takes place in November, and after it we will see what happens to the rental measures. In early 2027 the notaries will publish their second-half 2026 data on foreign buyers, which will show whether this is a plateau or a continuing decline. You can discuss your own situation in an online consultation.

How this analysis was prepared

This analysis was prepared on 1 November 2026. Sources: the 15 October 2026 release of the General Council of Notaries of Spain and the analytical report of its statistics centre on home purchases by foreigners in the first half of 2026; the same centre's 29 October 2026 release on home sales in August 2026; Organic Law 1/2025 of 2 January 2025 in the Official State Gazette of Spain, final provision amending Law 14/2013. Figures on rental measures, prices and wages come from our own articles based on Royal Decree-Laws 28/2026 and 29/2026 and data from the national statistics institute. The scenarios are the author's assessment as of 1 November 2026. This material is not a substitute for legal or tax advice on your situation.