Waiting for prices to fall is pointless: in 2026 entry to Europe and the Caribbean only got more expensive

In brief

• In 2026 entry to Europe and the Caribbean became more expensive or stricter almost everywhere Russians buy.
• Greece plans a 15% purchase tax on homes for non-EU citizens from 1 July 2027, and on 15 October the minister promised to revoke permits for discount schemes.
• Cyprus is preparing to tighten permanent residence before Schengen; the Caribbean requires in-person interviews and biometrics.
• Russia plans to tax passive income at up to 22% from 2027, and non-residents at 30% instead of 15%.
• Demand is not waiting: in Q3 2026 Russians bought in the UAE, Thailand and Georgia, and the share of purchases to live in doubled.

What became more expensive in one year

I have put into one table what happened in 2026 alone. Some measures are adopted, some announced, but they all point the same way.

Look at the right-hand column. Almost everywhere it says 2027. That means the window for entering under today's rules is already measured, and it is shorter than it seems: a golden visa or permanent residence takes months, and source-of-funds documents are not collected in a week.

What this means for you. If you postpone the decision "until spring", in half the cases you will be applying under the new rules in spring.

Why entry prices do not fall

Investment programmes are not a flat market where a rise can be followed by a correction. The state sets the threshold and has no reason to lower it. Demand holds, pressure from Brussels and Washington grows, and every tightening is sold by governments to their voters as a win.

I will name the exception honestly: Sao Tome and Principe lowered its contribution on the programme's first anniversary. But it is a young programme that needs to win clients. The mature programmes of Europe and the Caribbean have not cut prices once in the last ten years; they have only raised thresholds and added checks and presence requirements.

That is exactly what happened with Greece: not long ago EUR 250,000 was enough anywhere in the country, and since 2024 Athens and the popular islands require EUR 800,000. Those who waited for the "market to cool" now pay three times more or choose another region. We covered this story in detail in the piece on Greek golden visa changes.

What this means for you. Betting that a programme will get cheaper is betting against the state that sells it. Such bets usually lose.

While you wait, others buy

Q3 2026 figures show that Russians are not standing still. The market has shifted, but it has not stopped.

The fall in deals in the first half of 2026 slowed almost by half: minus 23% against minus 38% a year earlier. More importantly, the purpose of buying changed. The share of those buying a home to live in rose from 13% at the end of 2025 to 27%. Investment purchases fell to 20% from 53%. People are buying not "for growth" but to move. Our real estate director broke this down by country in the piece on where Russians buy property abroad.

What this means for you. Those who are moving have already chosen a country and are buying under today's rules. Those waiting will queue behind them once the rules change.

When waiting is right

I am not saying "buy anything right now". There are situations where waiting is sensible.

• The programme does not exist yet. Argentina and Saint Vincent announce citizenship by investment, but applications are not open. Nobody should pay for a "place in the queue".
• Source-of-funds documents are not ready. Applying with gaps in the money history is worse than applying two months later.
• The decision depends on a law about to pass. For example, the Russian tax bill is worth waiting for at first reading before restructuring capital.

In all three cases you are waiting for a specific event with a date. That is not the same as waiting for an abstract "cheaper".

What this looks like with programmes not yet open is covered in the pieces on Argentina and on Saint Vincent.

What to do now

1. Choose the goal: moving, a back-up passport, an EU permit for the children, taxes. The goal determines the programme, not the other way round.
2. Calculate the budget under today's rules and under those announced for 2027. For Greece use the Greek golden visa cost calculator, for Vanuatu the Vanuatu citizenship estimate.
3. Start collecting source-of-funds documents now. It is the longest part of any programme.
4. If a programme suits you and is open, apply before the new rules take effect, not after.

If you need a quick back-up document, look at Vanuatu citizenship with processing in 2-3 months. If you need the EU by the sea, Cyprus permanent residence still works under the current rules.

What waiting costs in money

The word "more expensive" is easy to ignore, so I will turn it into figures. All calculations use rules already announced, with no assumptions that things will get "worse".

The Greek figures include the municipal levy: 3.09% now and 15.45% at the announced rate. This applies to non-EU citizens buying a home after 1 July 2027, if the law passes as announced. The Russian line follows bill 617-9 for a non-resident without a double tax treaty in force.

There are no figures for Cyprus yet, and that in itself is a bad sign for those waiting. The 2023 rules apply now: from EUR 300,000 excluding VAT and income from EUR 50,000 a year. The state is reviewing about 12,000 issued permits, and the deputy migration minister has already sent colleagues proposals to tighten the rules. The new terms will come before Cyprus joins Schengen, and they are unlikely to be softer than today's. Analysis in the piece on Cyprus tightening permanent residence.

What this means for you. A difference of EUR 49,440 on one flat is the price of one decision to "wait until summer".

More on each 2026 step: Greek golden visa revocation for discounts, the Portuguese golden visa queue, in-person presence in the Caribbean, LTV visas for Russians, the up-to-22% tax on passive income and the ban on P2P crypto deals.

What waiting looks like on the calendar

The main mistake of those waiting is counting from the date a new rule takes effect. You need to count from the date you can actually complete the deal.

Take Greece. To buy a flat before 1 July 2027, you need to choose a property, have it checked by a lawyer, obtain a Greek tax number, open an account, transfer the money in a way the bank accepts as to its origin, and sign the contract before a notary. Even with good preparation this usually takes several months, and for Russians the banking part is often the longest. So the decision has to be made at the start of 2027, not in June.

The Caribbean is the same, except the obstacle is presence requirements rather than tax. In-person interviews and biometrics are already mandatory, and the common rule of 30 days in the country over the first 5 years awaits the launch of the regional regulator. Those who apply before the launch will live by today's rules. Those who apply after will get a passport with an obligation to spend a month on the island.

The Russian tax calendar is the tightest: 1 January 2027. If you plan to become a non-resident while receiving dividends from Russia, the decision on your capital structure must be taken in the coming weeks, while the bill moves to its first reading on 29 October.

What this means for you. Your real deadline is not the date of the new rule but that date minus the time needed for the deal. For most programmes it comes sooner than it seems.

Three objections I hear

"What if the rules are softened?" An announced measure is sometimes postponed: Greece has already moved the 15% tax from 1 January to 1 July 2027, and there is an election in spring 2027. But postponement is not cancellation. No Greek government in recent years has lowered golden visa thresholds; they have only been raised. Basing a family plan on politicians changing their minds is a poor strategy.

"I will wait until sanctions are sorted out." EU sanctions against Russia are regularly renewed, and each new package adds restrictions, including on visas, as in the 21st package. If your plan depends on Europe becoming softer on Russian passports, you do not have a plan. That is why many clients first obtain a second citizenship and then use it to apply for EU residence.

"I have no spare money right now." That is an honest reason, and then waiting is right. But even then there are free things to do: collect source-of-funds documents, put your tax history in order, work out which programme fits your goal. When the money comes, you will apply in weeks rather than months.

What this means for you. Waiting is justified when you are preparing. Waiting without preparation is simply lost time.

My conclusion

In my years in this industry I have never seen a programme get cheaper because clients waited. I have seen the opposite many times: Portugal closed real estate, Greece tripled thresholds, Cyprus closed its passport, Vanuatu lost visa-free travel to Europe. Each time there were people who had "almost decided". Wait only for a specific event with a date. Any other waiting costs more.

How this piece was prepared

This piece draws on 2026 announcements and decisions by the governments of Greece, Cyprus, the Caribbean states and Russia already covered in BRIDGES analysis, on bill 617-9 and on foreign real estate market analysts' data on Russian deals in Q3 2026. Measures announced but not yet adopted are marked as such. It is not investment advice.