Forecast for the Vanuatu programme to 2028

In brief: four lines

• Volume. The flow will stay within a range of 1,500-2,500 approvals a year.
• Price. The entry cost will keep rising; there will be no reduction.
• Strictness. The refusal rate will rise to three or four per cent.
• The passport’s role. It will become firmly established as a gateway to European residence programmes.

Volume: no sharp moves

Over the past six years the annual flow has fluctuated within a narrow range, and external shocks have not broken it: neither the pandemic nor the end of visa-free travel with the European Union.

The number of approved applications by year. For 2021-2023, official Vanuatu Citizenship Commission statistics. For 2024-2026 there is no official breakdown, and a BRIDGES estimate is shown. The 2026 figure covers the first half.

We expect neither a collapse nor explosive growth. The programme operates in a mode where demand is limited not by market interest but by the capacity of the checks. Vanuatu is in no hurry to expand it, and this is a deliberate position: growth in volume now would cost reputation.

What this means for you. Do not expect queues or quotas for the programme, nor its closure. Review times will stay at two to three months.

Price: only upwards

The most stable line of the forecast, because it is confirmed by ten years of history.

Along with the contribution, requirements grew too: a mandatory Financial Intelligence Unit fee of USD 5,000 per application appeared, and preparing documents takes longer. This is worth factoring into the calculation in advance. Current amounts are covered in the article what Vanuatu citizenship costs.

Today’s budget can be fixed with an official invoice. Fix the budget

Strictness: the rise will continue

The refusal rate rose from 0.37 per cent in 2021 to almost two per cent in 2023. We expect three to four per cent by 2028, and this is what it is based on.

• Biometrics have been in place since November 2025. This makes checks against international databases thorough rather than selective.
• Source-of-funds requirements keep tightening across the citizenship by investment market as a whole, and Vanuatu is following this trend.
• The checkers have accumulated experience and recognise schemes that passed five years ago.

It is important to understand that what is growing is not arbitrariness but the demands on documents. A refusal on the merits remains rare; a detailed review is in the article Vanuatu citizenship refusals.

What this means for you. An application that passes today will need more detailed proof in a year. It is better to collect source-of-funds documents now, while the requirements are lower.

The passport’s role: a gateway to Europe through residence

This is the only line where we expect a qualitative change rather than a quantitative one.

After the end of visa-free travel with the European Union, Vanuatu stopped being a passport for travel around Europe but acquired another function that matters more to a wealthy client: it works as a basis for access to European residence programmes, above all the Greek property route, as well as Hungarian options.

We expect that by 2028 this combination will become the main use case: a fast passport in two to three months, then European residence on its basis. The structure is covered in the section on residence programmes, and what happened to demand after the EU decision in the article Vanuatu after the EU visa-free suspension.

What could go differently

An honest forecast must include scenarios in which it does not come true. Three of them deserve attention.

A sharp tightening under external pressure. Medium probability. If the requirements of international organisations jump, Vanuatu may introduce additional conditions, for example a mandatory visit to the country. For the applicant this means higher costs, but not the loss of the opportunity.

Restrictions by applicants’ nationality. Low probability, but not zero. Some programmes have introduced restrictions for citizens of specific countries. For Vanuatu such a step would go against its own economic interests, since the main demand comes precisely from these countries.

A pause for technical restructuring. Low probability. This has happened before during transitions between schemes: acceptance of applications was suspended for weeks. It is not a risk of losing money, but a risk of timelines shifting.

None of these scenarios would cause passports already issued to lose their validity. This is fundamental: citizenship obtained is an established fact, and changes concern the entry conditions for new applicants.

How to read news about the programme

Headlines about “the closure of golden passports” appear regularly, and almost always something else lies behind them. A simple way to decode them.

The practical rule: look at who took the decision and what exactly it changes. An EU Council decision on visas changes neither the legality of the programme nor the validity of the passport. A decision of Vanuatu’s parliament on the programme’s conditions changes them for new applicants and does not apply retroactively.

Forecasts in our industry rarely come true in the details and almost always come true in direction. The direction here is obvious: more expensive, stricter, longer to prepare. I do not remember a single year in ten when the terms for Vanuatu became softer or cheaper. Hence my practical advice to everyone who asks whether to wait: in this programme waiting has always cost money. If the need for a second passport is there in principle, it is better value to meet it on today’s terms than on the terms a year from now.

Sergey EvdokimovManaging Partner, BRIDGES

Vanuatu cost calculator →

Three indicators I watch

To see changes before the market rather than guess, it is enough to watch three open indicators.

First: the Reserve Bank’s quarterly reviews. Programme revenue is published quarterly. A sustained fall for two or three quarters in a row would mean something had changed in demand or in the process, and this would be visible long before any statements.

Second: the budget breakdown. The costs of the Citizenship Commission are a separate line. A sharp increase in staff usually means preparation for stricter checks, and a reduction the opposite.

Third: the Commission’s tariff page. Fee changes appear there before they appear in retellings. We check it regularly, because a client’s estimate must be based on the current tariff, not last year’s.

All three sources are open, and links to them are at the end of this article. If you decide to follow them yourself, look at these sources rather than market publications: figures appear there with a delay of months and often second-hand.

What this changes for a decision today

Four practical conclusions from the forecast.

• The cost of waiting is measurable. At the historical rate, a year of waiting costs roughly 5-10 per cent of the application budget.
• Preparation will take longer than the review itself. Already, assembling a correct source-of-funds package is sometimes harder than waiting for the decision. This imbalance will grow.
• It is better value to include the family at once. Every price increase hits those who add relatives later with a separate application.
• The European track is worth planning in advance. If the ultimate goal is Europe, the passport is the first step, and the sooner it is taken, the sooner the main process starts.

Decision checklist

If you are weighing whether to go now or wait, go through six points.

• Define the goal: a back-up document, speed, tax status, access to European residence. Whether this programme suits you at all depends on it.
• Check the family composition: whom you include at once and whom you planned to add later. Later is always more expensive.
• Assess the source of funds: whether the chain is supported by documents already today.
• Calculate the cost of a year’s wait: at the historical rate it is 5-10 per cent of the application budget.
• Check your travel expectations against the current list of destinations, not against promises from three years ago.
• If the ultimate goal is Europe, plan the combination at once: the passport, then a residence programme.

The first three points are covered by a review before filing, the last three by a calculation. Both steps are taken before you make a single payment.

The year in figures →How to obtain citizenship →

What will definitely not be in the forecast

Let me separate what we expect from what is regularly promised on the market.

• Visa-free travel with the EU will not return. The decision was taken at the level of the Council of the Union and relates to the very design of the programmes, not to one-off circumstances.
• The cost will not come down. In ten years the entry price has never fallen. Waiting for promotions and discounts has historically not paid off.
• Processing will not be faster than two months. Two to three months is already the limit with the current checks and the commission’s meeting cycle.
• The source-of-funds check will not be abolished. The requirement is external and market-wide; the programme is not autonomous here.

If you are promised anything from this list, it is not a forecast but a way of closing a deal. Any such promise can be checked against open sources, which are referenced below.

How we calculated

The trends in approvals and refusals are based on the Vanuatu Citizenship Commission’s annual reports for 2021-2023 and our estimate for 2024-2026. The history of the minimum contribution is based on the programme conditions in force at the time, and revenue on Reserve Bank of Vanuatu reporting. The forecast values for 2028 are a BRIDGES estimate built on historical trends and our practice and are marked separately in the tables.