How We Calculate: The Methodology Behind Our Analysis

This page describes the sources we use, how we mark estimates, what we do when data are lacking and in which cases we decline to publish a figure at all.

Which sources we use

What we do not use: aggregators, agency websites, news retellings and search results. Figures on the cost of programmes come only from our internal compilation, which is reconciled with the state bodies' tariff pages.

Three levels of reliability

In every piece we divide statements into three types and label them in words.

Fact. Confirmed by an official source that can be cited. Example: "In 2023, 1,113 applications were filed and 22 rejected."

Bridges Global estimate. A calculation based on official data, or a generalisation from our practice. Example: "On our estimate, 1,900-2,500 applications were approved in 2025." An estimate is always labelled, and on charts it is shown with a muted fill and a dashed outline.

Bridges Global forecast. A judgement about the future, stating the factors that could change it. A forecast is never presented as established fact.

How we calculate what is not in the statistics

The main technique is comparing two independent quantities. If a state publishes a programme's revenue but not the number of passports issued, we take historical periods where both quantities are known, calculate the average collected per document and apply it to periods where only the revenue is known.

A calculation is considered fit for publication if it converges by two independent methods. Example: the average collected per passport on 2014-2019 data was VT 5.19 million; on the VCP and DSP data for 2017-2019 it was VT 5.10 million. The discrepancy is under two per cent, so the figure can be used.

If the two methods diverge substantially, we do not publish the figure and say that the data are insufficient.

A worked example

Let me show how it works on a specific calculation. The question: how many passports did Vanuatu issue in 2024? There is no official figure.

Step one. We take what has been published: programme revenue for 2024 according to the Reserve Bank of Vanuatu — VT 13.8 billion.

Step two. We look for a period where both quantities are known. The programme review for 2014-2019 gives VT 33.75 billion of revenue and 6,500 passports issued.

Step three. We calculate the average collected per passport: VT 5.19 million. We check it by a second method — the VCP and DSP programmes for 2017-2019: VT 26.80 billion over 5,253 passports, or VT 5.10 million. The discrepancy is under two per cent.

Step four. We apply the figure to 2024, adjusted for the investment programmes' share of revenue as stated by the same bank. The result is a range, not an exact number.

Step five. We publish it as an estimate: labelled in words, shown with a dashed outline on the chart, with the method explained under the chart.

Had the two methods diverged by tens of per cent, the figure would not have been published at all.

Why we publish this at all

We could choose not to. The market manages perfectly well without figures: agents quote sums from memory, the client cannot check them, and there is nothing to argue with.

But that is precisely why we calculate. A client who can see the method can check us — and that is the only way to tell analysis from advertising. Figures also get cited: a piece with verifiable data lives for years, while a presentation full of attractive promises is out of date within a season.

What we do not do

• We do not publish a figure without stating its source or labelling it as an estimate.
• We do not present a forecast as fact.
• We do not take data from aggregators or agency websites.
• We do not disclose information about specific clients: practice is described only in aggregate.
• We do not promise a result or guarantee approval.
• We do not write "according to experts" without saying who those experts are.

How often we update

Programme conditions are checked before every publication and whenever there are material changes. Every piece shows the date it was verified — if that date is old, the figures should be confirmed before a decision is made. State tariffs change without notice, so before invoicing a client we request the current amounts from the relevant body.

If you find a discrepancy between our figures and an official source, write to us — we will correct it and note the date of the correction.

Main sources

The Vanuatu Citizenship Commission vancitizenship.gov.vu, the Reserve Bank of Vanuatu rbv.gov.vu, the relevant bodies of the Caribbean programmes, the Court of Justice of the European Union curia.europa.eu, and the EU law portal eur-lex.europa.eu. The information was verified as at 29 August 2026.